This Project focuses on the impact of the physical environment upon marine ecosystems, primarily coral reefs and fisheries. Climate impacts incorporate both natural and human-related processes. These include global changes such as the enhanced Greenhouse effect and regional processes such as sediment and nutrient run-off from land that has been modified by human activities in the river catchments. At the same time the marine ecosystems also respond to natural disturbances, such as upwelling, and recruitment events. These events are controlled by the water circulation, which itself responds to climate. This knowledge base involves understanding the strong links between the physics, chemistry and the biology of marine ecosystems.

• Program 1 Objective 4 To improve understanding of the principal physical and chemical oceanographic processes in Australia's coastal and open ocean waters
• Program 1 Objective 5 To improve predictions of Australian climate variability and change by understanding the role of the oceans in the climate system
• Program 1 Objective 7 To understand the dynamics of Australia's marine habitats and ecosystems
• Program 2 Objective 2 To improve understanding of the impact of land-based human activities on the marine environment
• Program 2 Objective 4 To apply knowledge of the ocean's variability and change, including interaction with the atmosphere and sediments, to the management of marine and terrestrial industries and environmental issues
• Program 2 Objective 6 To improve understanding of the relationship between fished stocks and the ecosystems that support them

• Predicting climate change. AIMS collects continuous observations from a network of weather stations and instruments in the oceans, which are used to ground-truth remote sensing satellites and to inform regional models of climate. Priority is being given to risk-assessments for the impacts of global warming upon coral reef ecosystems.
• Understanding effects of climate upon oceanic food chains. The climatic oscillations between El Niño and La Niña affect rainfall on the land and major ocean currents in the sea. The effect of these swings may also impact upon oceanic productivity and food chain dynamics. AIMS is studying these impacts to explain interannual variations in the replenishment of marine populations.
• Assessing land-based inputs from rivers. In north Queensland, the major connections between land and sea occur during wet season floods, which vary in frequency and intensity between years. River discharges are being gauged continuously as part of a program of monitoring water quality in inshore sections of the GBRWHA.
• Predicting the transport of materials in coastal seas. Low salinity flood plumes can be tracked for tens to hundreds of kilometres from river mouths. This is the starting point for mapping the delivery of mud and contaminants of terrestrial origin through the marine environment. 3-D hydrodynamic models have been developed to predict this dispersal and provide a risk-analysis for coastal ecosystems. Similar models are under development for a variety of purposes including predicting the genetic connectivity of animal populations within the GBRWHA.

• To estimate the risk to coral reef ecosystems posed by rising sea temperatures
• To contribute scientific knowledge to the public debate about global climate change
• To support the formation of an Australian Ocean Observing System (AOOS)
• To estimate the degree of threat to coastal marine ecosystems posed by the sediments and nutrients flushed from catchments modified by human development
• To contribute scientific knowledge to the public debate about water quality in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area
• To improve capacity to predict the movement of solid and dissolved substances through estuarine and coastal waters
• To develop real-time systems for monitoring ocean circulation, temperatures, salinities
• To understand the linkages between physical climate, oceanic productivity and food webs sustaining fisheries production

AGO, AMSA, CALM, CAR, CRC (CH), CRC (CZWM), CRC (GBRWHA), EA, Fisheries WA, GBRMPA, NOAA, NWS JMEMS, QDNR, QEPA, agricultural industries and regulators, oil and gas production industry, regional tourism operators

Funding base (2000-01 figures)
$2,651,843 (Appropriations)
$390,853 (External contracts at 1 July 2000)

Contact
Dr Eric Wolanski FTSE (Project Leader)
Ph: (07) 4753 4243. 
Fax: (07) 4772 5852. 
Email: e.wolanski@aims.gov.au

In 1998, a global episode of coral bleaching showed that many reef corals live near the limits of their thermal tolerance. Where corals bleached, sea temperatures were several degrees above normal summer values and some of the highest on record. Such patterns are consistent with predictions of global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels. This possibility raises an urgent need to understand whether temperature change threatens the viability of coral reefs. In particular, we need to understand whether reef corals can adapt to higher temperatures and if so, whether this will be by individual adaptation or changes in community structure. Answers now may predict the future of the Great Barrier Reef and the profitability of the tourism industries associated with it. Predictions about how coral reefs will adapt to future climate change can be based partly upon their responses to past environmental challenges. These data can be extracted from the records of growth and performance preserved in coral skeletons taken from living and fossil assemblages.

• Determine how coral calcification rates are changing on the GBR
• Determine how rising CO2 levels may affect calcification rates
• Document historical frequency of coral bleaching events
• Determine the potential of corals to adapt or acclimatise to higher temperatures
• Monitor climate in northern Australia with in situ measurements and satellites
• Conduct risk analyses of the impacts of climate change upon the Great Barrier Reef

• Reconstruct historical records (pre-industrial to present) of calcification and sea surface temperature changes in northern, central and southern Great Barrier Reef
• Reconstruct historical record of coral bleaching frequency on the Great Barrier Reef
• Develop risk analyses for impacts of future climate change on the Great Barrier Reef

Key clients and stakeholders
AGO, CAR, CRC (GBRWHA), EA, GBRMPA, NOAA, QDNR, marine tourism industries

Research team
David Barnes, Ray Berkelmans (GBRMPA), Derek Burrage, Monty Devereux, Janice Lough, Mike Mahoney, Bruce Parker, Sea Rotman (PGS), William Skirving, Craig Steinberg, Ray Taylor (Emeritus), Cassie Tobin, Severine Thomas (PGS), James True (PGS), Sandy Tudhope (U. Edinburgh)

Contact
Dr Janice Lough
Ph: (07) 4753 4248. 
Fax: (07) 4772 5852. 
Email: j.lough@aims.gov.au 

Enhanced run-off of terrestrial sediment and nutrients from agricultural and urban developments within catchments bordering the GBRWHA is regarded as a significant problem with potential to change water quality in the receiving areas and ultimately degrade nearshore marine communities. A necessary first step to resolving the threat that run-off poses to marine ecosystems is to identify the nutrient and sediment loads carried by rivers. A major obstacle to studying this phenomenon is that effects may be most acute after episodic flood events, especially those following tropical cyclones. This will be done by using automated river loggers that determine suspended solids loads.

• Estimate inputs of terrestrial sediments and nutrients (Nitrogen, Phosphorus) to the GBR with appropriate weighting for catchment type and run-off
• Improve understanding of the bioavailability of nutrients delivered to the GBR in river waters
• Show how terrestrial nutrient inputs to the GBR compare with major unresolved natural sources of nutrients such as pelagic nitrogen fixation by Trichodesmium
• Maintain water quality monitoring in selected sections of the GBR for evidence of any long-term trends towards eutrophication
• Test the potential effectiveness of airborne microwave radiometry as a tool for rapid and accurate mapping of river plumes and salinity variations

• Provide predictive models using hydrological data to estimate sediment and nutrient exports from major catchment types into the GBR Lagoon
• Contribute scientific knowledge to the public interest debate about water quality in the GBRWHA

Key clients and stakeholders
CRC (CH), CRC (GBRWHA), CRC (CZWM), GBRMPA, QDNR, QEPA, agricultural industries and regulators

Research team
Derek Burrage, Miles Furnas, Sue Ghonim, Alan Mitchell, Michele Skuza, Craig Steinberg, Margaret Wright

Contact
Dr Miles Furnas
Ph: (07) 4753 4323. 
Fax: (07) 4772 5852. 
Email: m.furnas@aims.gov.au 

Waterborne materials can be moved large distances by hydrodynamic circulation so that proper understanding of effects (flushing and dispersal of pollutants, exchange of spawn among populations) requires knowledge of this transport. This will be done by developing numerical models of hydrodynamic circulation and process models to assess how the fate of waterborne propagules and pollutants affects the health and status of marine ecosystems. In the current triennium, the research will focus on two key processes: the impact of turbidity and nutrient loads in the coastal zone; and the connectivity and replenishment of metapopulations of coral reef biota.

• Improve understanding of the long term, large-scale circulation within the GBR
• Develop propagule dispersal models to predict recruitment patterns
• Develop predictive numerical models for sediment transport in the coastal zone
• Determine the response of coastal ecosystems to increased turbidity and nutrient loads

• A validated real-time system for monitoring shelf scale circulation in the GBR
• Improved predictions of the flow patterns within the Great Barrier Reef and predictive models of the source-sink connections (by spawn) of fragmented populations
• Improved predictions about the fate of fine sediments in the coastal zone and an ecosystem model of the ecology of coastal coral reefs impacted by mud

Key clients and stakeholders
AMSA, CRC (GBRWHA), GBRMPA, QDNR, QEPA, agricultural industry policy bodies

Research team
Richard Brinkman, John Carleton, Felicity McAllister, Katie Moore, William Skirving, Simon Spagnol, Craig Steinberg, Eric Wolanski

Contact
Richard Brinkman
Ph: (07) 4753 4374. 
Fax: (07) 4772 5852. 
Email: r.brinkman@aims.gov.au 

Most of Australia's oil and gas production comes from the North West Shelf, which also supports regionally important fisheries, developing marine-based tourism, and habitats of high conservation value. The greatest potential for resource conflict occurs in the southern North West Shelf between Exmouth and Dampier. This Subproject will continue studies of food webs in the vicinity of North West Cape, which separates the Ningaloo Marine Park from Exmouth Gulf. The latter has a significant prawn fishery, while the former has important ecotourism values including seasonal viewing of whale sharks. Work in the last triennium indicated that cycles in both industries may be related to regional climate. High levels of primary production have been detected in this region, along with evidence of episodic upwelling at the continental shelf margin. The next step will be to link satellite measurements of chlorophyll with monitoring of water column stability and productivity.

• Define the dynamics of boundary zone upwelling along Ningaloo Reef
• Resolve the quantities and fates of nutrients upwelled onto the southern NW Shelf
• Improve understanding of krill resources in the NW Cape region
• Determine how inter-annual variations in primary production influence energy transfers to higher trophic levels (prawns and krill) in the NW Cape region

• New understanding of seasonal aggregations of whale sharks in the vicinity of Ningaloo Reef and an increased ability to forecast the abundance of sharks
• New understanding of the food chains supporting prawn harvests in the Exmouth Gulf and a possible framework for predicting recruitment strength
• Improved knowledge of the influence of the Leeuwin Current upon a region of important economic activity within the State of Western Australia

Key clients and stakeholders
CALM, Fisheries WA, NWS JMEMS, oil and gas production industry, regional tourism operators

Research team
Derek Burrage, John Carleton, Peter Doherty, Samantha Duggan, Miles Furnas, Andrew Halford, David McKinnon, Mark Meekan, Peter Speare, Craig Steinberg, Steve Wilson (UWA)

Contact
Dr Miles Furnas
Ph: (07) 4753 4323. 
Fax: (07) 4772 5852. 
Email: m.furnas@aims.gov.au