• Global temperatures have warmed ~ 0.6^oC since observations began in the late 19^th century
• The 10 warmest years globally all occurred in the 1990s and 2000s and the 1990s was probably the warmest decade in the past 1,000 years
• Average water temperatures of the GBR have warmed by ~0.4^oC between the end of the 19^th and end of the 20^th century
• Many corals are living only 1-2^oC below their upper thermal threshold
• Unusually warm water temperatures in the summers of 1998 and 2002 caused mass bleaching of corals on the GBR
• "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" (IPCC)

A wide range of expertise exists within the Environmental Change & Impacts team including skills in Geographical Information System, statistical analysis, spatial analysis, geospatial modelling, climatology, oceanography, remote sensing, coral reef and mangrove ecology, taxonomy, evolutionary biology, coral physiology and coral genetics. Scientists conduct their work in the field, in the lab, in controlled aquarium facilities, and in mangrove shade houses. Researchers use X-rays to examine growth histories from coral cores, manipulate the environment of mangroves, observe the responses of corals transplanted between reefs, deploy instruments to measureto measure ocean currents and temperatures and conduct controlled coral bleaching experiments.

This research is crucial to improving conservation management of the Great Barrier Reef. The scientists analyse the resilience of tropical marine ecosystems to natural and human induced disturbances. They examine the risks and threats to the Great Barrier Reef and use computer models and past climate records to predict the fate of coral reefs. By exploring the ability of damaged reefs to self-remediate researchers are hoping to develop technologies for reef restoration. They are also learning about how reefs are connected in a bid to identify which reefs self-recruit and which ones source others. This involves linking observed changes in the physical environment with biological responses. Outcomes of this research will help reef managers to pin point reefs of importance.

Coral Bleaching experts are examining how much heat corals can tolerate, setting upper thermal limits to of when corals may bleach and or die. The scientists look at environmental data records to see what environmental conditions trigger bleaching. Scientists are also examining ocean dynamics to determine why coral bleaching is so patchy. The ability of corals to adapt or acclimate to a warmer environment is also being probed. Research of this nature will help identify areas more or less susceptible to coral bleaching. This will enable scientists to predict how the Great Barrier Reef will cope with future heat waves and projected rises in sea temperature. This research is vital to understanding the impact of global warming on coral reefs worldwide.

Scientists are also using the historical archives contained in coral skeletons to determine how coral growth may change after coral bleaching events.

Using large coral colonies exposed during excavation for the Nelly Bay Harbour redevelopment on Magnetic Island AIMS scientists are able to reconstruct a snapshot of mid-Holocene (~ 6,000 years ago) coral growth, river run-off and other climatic parameters in the vicinity of Townsville.. Researchers are comparing recent climate conditions with the past and examining how corals have responded to change.

Myrmidon Reef remote weather station.

Davies Reef remote weather station.

Two of AIMS' remote weather stations on the Great Barrier Reef.

Reef Futures

Reef Futures is a source of information and tools for exploring the effects of management and environmental change on reefs. It’s a place to go to explore what the future might bring. The Reef Futures group develops models, statistical tools, databases, and websites supporting coral reef ecology.

Mangroves act as a vital buffer between land and sea and are nursery grounds for fish and other marine species. AIMS researchers are investigating how rapidly mangroves can respond to environmental change and how they will cope with the predicted rise in sea level (10-80 cm by the end of this century) and to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This project is crucial for successful management of these vital ecosystems, which are also increasingly threatened by coastal development.

Understanding how currents connect reefs and how this impacts on recruitment is crucial to identifying reefs of importance, e.g. source reefs. AIMS researchers have developed sophisticated hydrodynamic models to forecast the probability of a reef reseeding from the surrounding reefs. This predictive model is in the process of being tested and refined based on studies on movement of particles, larval loadings and genetic connectivity. The way species and their genes disperse over their range has major consequences on many ecological and evolutionary features, including the potential for local adaptation. An accurate assessment of dispersal is necessary to identify source and sink reefs, information that will aid in the choice of areas to be protected.

AIMS is assessing the ability for damaged reefs to recover following disturbance. The team will investigate new approaches for large-scale culture and delivery of coral larvae to reefs and compare the results with ongoing research into natural recruitment and post-recruitment survival.