Hot off the Press
climate change reef research
22 November 2005
Leading climate change researchers from the Australian Institute of
Marine Science will present their latest findings on climate change
and the Great Barrier Reef, at the Rainforest meets Reef
conference in Townsville today.
Modelling of future impacts suggest that a 1-3oC
increase in GBR water temperatures, predicted for the end of this
century, would result in ~80-100% bleaching of the GBR, compared with
~50% in 1998 and 2002.
Coral Bleaching expert Dr Ray Berkelmans said to maintain current
levels of hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals
would need to increase their heat tolerance limits by 0.1oC
per decade.
Dr Berkelmans will discuss his investigations into coral’s ability
to adapt to warmer conditions. "While the coral themselves have shown
little potential to acclimatize, the relationship the coral has with
live-in algae (which in some cases is more heat tolerant) may be its
best chance of surviving climate change."
Since there are many types of zooxanthellae (algal partners) and
the symbiosis or partnership appears to be flexible, there may be
substantially more thermal acclimation potential than first thought.
But will it be enough to keep up with the changing climate? Dr
Berkelmans conference talk is scheduled for 4:15pm today.
Manager of the AIMS Remote Sensing facility Craig Steinberg will
reveal how hydrodynamic processes play an important role and have been
shown to make some areas consistently cooler and therefore less
susceptible to coral bleaching.
"For example, cooler surface waters are often found in areas where
reefs and islands stir the water column sufficiently to mix cooler
deep water up to the surface," he said. His talk is scheduled for
today at 4:30.
An understanding of this patchiness associated with mass bleaching
events using satellite Sea Surface Temperature data enables scientists
to predict the areas most at risk of warming and possible bleaching.
"This is assisting in the identification of areas more vulnerable to
coral bleaching and contributing to better design of Marine Protected
Areas in other parts of the tropical world," Mr Steinberg said.
AIMS climate specialist Dr Janice Lough will explain observed
changes in climate.
Dr Lough said there is hard evidence that climate change is taking
its toll on corals on the Great Barrier Reef. She will discuss other
climate changes observed in the vicinity of the GBR in a talk
scheduled for 4:00pm today.
