ReefState

Over the coming decades, a number of consequences of climate change are going to be seen on reefs around the world. Exactly what is going to happen, we don't know for sure. However, change is inevitable as the consequences of elevated carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, including higher sea surface temperature and ocean acidification, become more apparent.

For more information on this subject
AIMS Marine Blueprint, "Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef"

On this page, you can see some possible outcomes for parts of the Great Barrier Reef of different climate change scenarios resulting from an increase in sea surface temperature, taking into account the possible adaptability of coral.

It seems likely that the reefs will go on in some form, but it is possible that they may host a different composition of species, depending on a range of factors.

According to analysis by AIMS researcher Scott Wooldridge and co-authors (see publication link, below), lasting transition to seaweed-dominated or otherwise impoverished seascapes will be avoided only if there are slow rates of warming and a significant rate of adaptation in corals.

Population levels of herbivorous creatures that live on the reef and keep it clear of algae and seaweed will also play a part in how the reef might change.

Try selecting variables such as low or high warming, low or high rates of adaptation, the location of the reefs and size of the herbivorous population to see what might happen.

Try the ReefState tool